A 50-Year-Old Warning We Can’t Afford to Ignore
In 1973, the University of Illinois published a short, quietly radical document through its Cooperative Extension Service. Titled Who Will Control U.S. Agriculture?, it outlined six possible futures for American farming. Each one imagined a very different answer to the central question:
Would the nation’s food system serve farmers and communities — or corporate profit?
50 years later, the most alarming vision in that publication has become reality. But the good news is: the future is still a choice. And the roadmap to reclaim it is already written.
Six Futures for U.S. Agriculture
The report was released as a series of six “leaflets,” each describing a different structure for U.S. agriculture. Some reflected long-standing models, like competitive family farms or producer co-ops. Others explored emerging trends toward consolidation, vertical integration, and public administration. The last leaflet proposed a balanced system built through deliberate public policy.
Let’s walk through what they said — and what they mean now.
1. The Warning Signs
Leaflet 1: The Current Situation and the Issues
Even in 1973, farmers were being pushed out by land costs, contract farming, and agribusiness consolidation. Less than 2% of farms accounted for a third of all sales by 1969. Many feared that corporations — not communities — would soon control production, processing, and markets.
Sound familiar?
2. The Ideal
Leaflet 2: A Dispersed, Open Market Agriculture
This model centers on independent family farmers selling into open, competitive markets. Farmers own or co-own the land, control their decisions, and rely on accessible credit and public research — not corporate contracts. Monopolies are broken up, and rural communities thrive on decentralized commerce.
This isn’t a fantasy. It’s the vision Farm Action fights for every day — and the policies that support it are well known:
- Strong antitrust enforcement
- Transparent public market data
- Limits on corporate landholding
- Tailored regulations for average-sized farms
- Access to credit and public investment for independent producers
All illustrations from: “Who Will Control U.S. Agriculture?” North Central Public Policy Education Committee. (March, 1973).
3. The Corporate Takeover
Leaflet 3: A Corporate Agriculture
This leaflet reads like prophecy. It describes a future where fewer than 500 large corporations dominate farming — owning inputs, land, processing, and distribution. Family farmers lose independence. Rural communities hollow out. Consumers pay more while corporations rake in profits. Public research, transparency, and market access wither.
That future? It’s now.
And the authors warned: without bold intervention, corporate agriculture would become the default.
4. A Cooperative Solution — With Caveats
Leaflet 4: A Cooperative Agriculture
This model envisions large, vertically integrated co-ops replacing corporations. Farmers would sell collectively, negotiate as a bloc, and share ownership. While it could stabilize income and increase farmer control, it would require major legal reform — including antitrust exemptions and mandatory co-op participation.
It’s a model with potential, but risks mirroring the same centralization it aims to solve.
5. Full Government Control
Leaflet 5: A Government Administered Agriculture
In this system, the government would take the lead — regulating production, land use, prices, credit, and more. This could ensure low-cost food and broad access, but would reduce farmer freedom and saddle taxpayers with large program costs. Still, the authors acknowledged we already had shades of this system in existing price supports and marketing orders.
The key question: What goals should public policy actually serve?
6. The Democratic Middle Ground
Leaflet 6: A Combination — A Role for Each System
This final leaflet outlines the most actionable and promising vision: a mixed system, intentionally designed through public policy to ensure balance, competition, and public benefit. Independent farmers, cooperatives, and businesses would coexist — but no single model could dominate.
Government would invest in open market infrastructure, support cooperatives, and enforce antitrust laws. The result: decentralized power, public accountability, and a food system that reflects democratic values — not just economic forces.
The Government Chose the Wrong Future. But We Can Still Choose Again.
50 years ago, the University of Illinois saw what was coming. They warned that the future of agriculture would not be determined by fate — but by policy.
We now live in the world that Leaflet 3 described: one of unchecked corporate power, collapsed competition, and lost farmer autonomy.
But Leaflet 2 and Leaflet 6 still offer a way forward — if we’re willing to act.
We can build a farm and food system grounded in:
- Open, competitive markets
- Public investment in farmers and local economies
- Cooperative structures that serve producers, not extract from them
- Democratic policies that protect people, not just profits
The Most Important Question in Food and Farming
Who will control U.S. agriculture?
That question is still as urgent today as it was 50 years ago — and the answer will be shaped by the next Farm Bill.
In the months ahead, Congress will decide whether to:
- Cede states’ rights to global meatpacking giants by overturning California’s Proposition 12 and similar state protections
- Grant legal immunity to foreign pesticide manufacturers, shielding them from accountability
- Continue rewarding the largest corporate farms and agribusinesses with taxpayer-funded subsidies — while independent producers are left behind
These decisions will determine whether our food system serves corporate power or the public good.
It’s time to choose a different path — and organize to get there.
